Washington State Continues to Slide for Retirees

Washington State once enjoyed status as a top 10 destination for retirees. It was the lack of income tax and one of the most favorable "blue states" for taxation in the country. But Washington's ten year transformation into a cool and wet version of California is nearly complete. Taxes have risen sharply and the government has managed to virtually fail at nearly all of its core responsibilities. Our highways once among the best in the country are now a crumbling mess. California sent us tens of thousands of hard line leftists that began voting for the same type of people that ruined California. And now enough of them reside in our state to control the policy.      

This is not a political blog, so I do not intend to push an agenda other than avoiding a permanent one party state. Policy affects all of us whether we are liberal or conservative. Liberals in California have been chased out of their home state by and large because of bad policy that they voted for. It's not that liberal policies are bad, it's that radical policy left or right is bad. Washington went from a classic "Iowa Style Democrat State" to a "California Style Democrat State" and it has nearly destroyed us. The problem in Washington is that the state Republican Party can't nominate a winning candidate. They tend to push hard line right wingers that have no chance in a blue state. 

Things will always get bad when you have one party control. California has had one party control for so long that corruption and lack of accountability has run them into the ground. Washington seems to be following them over the precipice. I am not saying that Washington needs to elect more Republicans, I am saying Washington needs to elect more "Iowa style Democrats" like they used to. These were sensible people that believed in strong unions, well funded eduction and transportation, and dedicated to public safety. But today's Washington Democrats are not that. They will take funding away from those basic needs and divert it into fringe programs that the vast majority of polling shows as unpopular even among Democrats.

They feel invincible in Olympia and that always leads to corrupt behavior. This is why Washington State has fallen from most of those top ten best places list. Until the voters wake up and vote for sensible liberals or sensible moderate conservatives, this ship cannot be righted. 

So am I declaring Washington as no good for retiring? NO, I am not. Washington is still in the top half of the best states to retire, the sheen is just off the finish a bit. If the Republican Party in Washington State can put forth moderates to take some seats in moderate counties, they could restore the balance of power. You see for the better part of two decades the house and senate in the state had a near balanced slightly tilted towards Democrats. The ratio of Democrat to Republican was typically 52/48, 54/46, 53/47. But the last few years have seen Washington move closer to California with a supermajority of Democrats in both houses. It's about 60/40 now. California is 70/30 and look at the mess they have down there. Again this is not an anti Democrat rant, it's an anti one-party rant. When politicians have that kind of control, they will invariably abuse their power, and we are definitely seeing that in Washington State today. Republicans in Washington tend to nominate aggressive right wingers that can't win on the west side of the state. Believe it or not, Democrats are quite vulnerable in Washington outside of King County, but the Republicans can't bring themselves to run moderates with a chance and that is why we are spiraling towards permanent one party control and that fate has already been foreseen, just look south to California.

In closing, Washington remains a solid choice for retirees if you have a connection to the Northwest, family, employment and such. If you lean to the right, it will be unpleasant for you, if you are hard to the right it will be unbearable. If you lean left you will like it especially on the west side of the state and if you are hard to the left definitely stay west, avoid the eastern half of the state ;) 

Legislature Still Poking at Income Tax.

Unfortunately for the residents of Washington the current government looks at California as if that state were getting it right. As ludicrous as that may seem, so goes Olympia, chasing more and more taxes, including the threat of an income tax. They say it will only be on millionaires, but we all know that's a crock of bile. Whether you are blue or red, you should scream to the high heavens against an income tax. Washington's entire run of economic success has been tied at the hip with a lack of a state income tax. Leaders in Olympia are not smart people, in fact most of them are probably not quite as bright as your dog. They will respond like most politicians to the threat of being voted out of office, so that's what we need right now. It needs to come from blue voters, because blue voters are the majority of Washington residents. 

Washington is expensive, the lack of income tax offsets the expenses and keeps businesses coming to our state, bringing high paying jobs and boosting our economy. An income tax will almost certainly cause a significant recession in Washington and lead to job losses, layoffs and less funding for government programs. We already see it in California which is no longer the "richest state" in the country, it's fallen several spots down and it now enjoys the status as highest poverty rate in the country. Yes Mississippi and West Virginia are no doubt delighted to no longer reside at the bottom of that list.

We are following California's unsustainable government policies right over the fiscal cliff like the proverbial lemmings. We are also headed to one party control which California has had for several decades and again, look at them. Flailing about losing residents, businesses, and revenue. Former Governor Jerry Brown a democrat, left office with the state is solid fiscal shape producing a surplus. Governor Gavin Newsom immediately evaporated all of that and now presides over Americas biggest dumpster fire. 

We don't want that here, do we? It's not about red and blue, it's about common sense. Washington used to have that, now it seems we do not. If this legislative session produces any form of state income tax, I could not in good faith recommend Washington as a retirement destination. Let's see if the dog brains in Olympia can pull their heads out of the stinky space between their legs.   

Fed Rates and New Taxes

The Fed finally made a move and cut the rate down a quarter and has indicated a willingness to consider another in December when they meet again. This action did have a positive effect on mortgage rates. Most people can now qualify for a loan in the 6s and few may find themselves in the upper 5s. This is a very healthy rate and should help keep the housing market moving in a positive direction. 

For retirees looking to find their home for the golden years, a low rate can really open up the inventory options. Oregonians are still flocking to SW Washington to save on income taxes in Oregon. 

Now the "T word" is out, I'm sad to report that the State of Washington passed one of the biggest if not the largest ever tax hike this year. We still do not suffer under an oppressive income tax like our southern neighbor but a great deal of other taxes we spiked during the latest legislative session. The current legislature loves taxes, it seems they want to be just like California and leave no dollar untaxed. Our Governor tends to drool all over himself when signing new tax bills presented to his desk in Olympia.

For retirees taxation is a really big inhibitor to comfortable living. Washington remains a better than average location from a retirees standpoint, but our strong leverage has been softening over time. Higher taxes and some of the most expensive real estate in the country has made us a little tougher to swallow for newly retiring seniors.

Unfortunately we are still a magnet for retiring Californians, many of whom elected the lineup of idiots that have destroyed that state, now they are registering to vote here. It's no surprise our legislature seems to be emulating California's and leading us to make the same mistakes they made in the formerly "Golden State." 

Washington still remains the only West Coast state to continue growing while Oregon and California have seen retractions in population, and in Oregon's case economic output. California is still enjoying some gains in GDP but falls behind Washington when measured per capita.

I still feel that Washington is a good spot to land as a retiree especially if you want to due part time consulting, or other jobs in the gig economy in the early years of retirement. Washingtons strong economy provides opportunities for seniors to earn good side scratch income to supplement their fixed retirement earnings, probably more so than any other West Coast State.

Fed Stays Put on Rates.

The Feds met at the end of July and decided again to stand with the current rate. This annoyed the President, but I am feel like they did the right thing. That runs counter to my own financial prospects as a slight dip in rates could put energy into the real estate market that would directly benefit me personally. But the federal government continues to spend money like drunken sailors and it hasn't;t mattered whether it was the R's or the D's neither can seem to really cut spending. All we get are clever accounting tricks rather than real cuts. 

When the government prints money it tends to artificially inflate the economy in a somewhat unnatural way. The economy is not as hot as the President says it is, but it is not slow enough to justify rate cuts at this time. That is a bit of the ironic part of the desire for lower rates while claiming the economy is hot. You don't get lower rates in a hot economy in a normal universe. 

The rolling 54 year average for mortgage rates sits at 7.71% according to Freddie Mac, the leading tracker of mortgage rates. We are well below that average right now at about 6.8% Even if we do a rolling 30 year year average to get the 1980s high rates out of the equation we still are close to average right now. It has been a difficult transition for younger home buyers that never saw rates this high during their adult lives. But it is a bit more psychological than economical at this point. 

The economy is good right now, not great, not terrible just OK, and perhaps the Fed is on the right track. Having a slight downward adjustment would have been nice as a gesture to get housing back on track, but I do not expect the Fed to make any substantial adjustments. When the current chairman's term is up next year, I would not be surprised to see him replaced. That new chairperson might decide to bend to the President's will and cut rates a bit. That would likely happen mid-2026. If the economy starts to stagnate before that, the current Chair, Jerome Powell might adjust rates toward on his own terms.

Buyers looking to buy in this market will find willing sellers. The best "deals" are on larger two story homes that are mostly owned by aging boomers looking to downsize and get rid of the stairs. Younger buyers can get a lot of house, like a 2500 SF 4 or 5 bedroom home 20-30 years old at $600-$700k. The price per foot on these now unpopular styles of homes is only $240-$260 per foot. Compare that to the typical 1250 SF ranch house that fetches $450k and a whopping $360 per foot. Saavy young people can rent rooms out in the large house to offset the mortgage. Yes you have to qualify in the first place, but you can go in halfsies with someone if need be. There is risk in these arrangements but it could get you in the housing door where you might not otherwise be able to be. 

Peek you head up over the box lid and look around, there are some opportunities out there for clever buyers.

 

Is Washington Still a Good Spot to Retire?

Over the last decade Washington has become more like California than ever before. California has lost much of its attraction for retires with punishing taxes and horrifically high housing costs. Now I am going to mention politics in this post but not to make a judgement one way or the other on party politics, but rather to perhaps shed some light on the way Washington has moved recently, for better or worse depending on your personal perspective. I think Washington is moving in the wrong direction but not because Democrats control the state, but because a different kind of Democrat has taken over.

Although Washington has long since been a strong "blue" state having not elected a Republican Governor since 1980 while in contrast California has had three Republican Governors since 1980. California however has always had a much more extreme government with their legislature over the last 20 years having a veto proof 70%-80% Democrat assembly and senate.

Washington has had a mostly Democrat legislature since the 1980s and all Democrat control over the last 20 years. However, Washington until just recently has always had a fairly close balance with Democrats holding a range between 52% and 55% of the seats. Today 60% of the seats are held by Democrats.  

Over the last 40 years Washington politics have been much better in my opinion than California with the Democrat majorities and Governors focusing on real issues that affect all citizens regardless of party affiliation. The state has veered away from attacking the rights of specific groups and in contrast elevated civil rights for all whether they were 1st Amendment or 2nd Amendment rights, Washington upheld them. It has only been in the last 8-10 years that I have noticed a serious shift into what I am calling California politics. Suppression of ideas, ignoring the Supreme Court, writing laws that the members of the legislature know full well are not constitutional and passing them anyway. This of course being a direct violation of the oath of office they took. California has been doing this for decades, but only recently have I seen this here in Washington. 

As a true Independent voter I don't care much which party runs our state so long as they run it well and provide equal rights for all citizens even citizens in the opposition party. Washington is not likely to elect a Republican majority or Governor anytime soon, but I wish they would elect Washington Democrats instead of California Democrats.

All of that said: is Washington losing its retirement sheen? Well a little, the state has gotten very aggressive on taxation and I believe they will keep trying to pass an income tax. We still have no state income tax in Washington and for most retirees that is a huge benefit and gives us an edge over both California and Oregon. Should these new California style Democrats that have taken over our politics continue to win elections, Washington State will almost certainly see the failure that we see in California and that would be a true shame.

The solution is simple if you already live here and you are a Democrat, contact your local DNC office or your local member of the legislature and tell them you don't want California politics in Washington. It is not making the state better in any meaningful way. This state can continue to be a "blue" state and still not take the awful path that California did. It's really up to the local Democrats to make the shift back to the Washington we all loved and adored. It's not too late.

Washington State Gets A lot of Oregon and California Retirees.

Washington State is the only West Coast State without a state income tax. This continues to be a shiny, wiggly, lure in the waters of retiring boomers. Anyone retiring with an expected income in excess of $100,000 seems to be fleeing the states of California and Oregon with their aggressive if not even oppressive income tax scheme. Oregon of course is the only one of the three without a sales tax. Lower income people benefit more from a lack of sales tax than they do a lack of income tax. Once you start getting up towards $70,000 however, the table turn and in some case quite quickly.

This certainly explains the success of the Springs Living high-rise on Vancouver's Waterfront. I wrote about that here. Locally in Southwest Washington, especially Clark County, we are experiencing strong growth and a fair sized bit is in the senior citizen community. Clark also is picking up swarms of working adults moving in on a robust job market, slightly more affordable housing, and the proud badge of "We are not Portland." 

Population growth can have a negative effect on real estate prices. We have seen a sharp increase in home values over the last several years but like the market nationwide we have slowed a bit. We still look like a bargain to those moving in from the Puget Sound region and from The SF Bay Area. However we have managed to become more expensive than most of California's counties. Oregonians outside of the Portland Metro Area may face sticker shock as well. 

Recent news has indicated that Vancouver is considering a complete annexation of the entire Vancouver Urban Growth Boundary. This will provide opportunity for higher density development in a larger area that can help mitigate home expenses. It may also allow for even more development of properties like the Springs Living including a more suburban feeling layout for those not interested in the urban high-rise experience.

Seniors looking to stay close to an urban area for medical services will find it hard to beat Vancouver. The city already has two large hospitals one run by Legacy Health the other by Peace Heath that happens to be based in Vancouver. The medical services in Vancouver are excellent and even those looking to be outside of a big city can find lovely and charming real state in places like Ridgefield and Battle Ground that remain a short distance to big city services in Vancouver and Portland.

With massive amounts of new residents swarming in from Portland, Seattle, and to a lesser extent, California, Clark County should remain strong as ever.

Washington Economy Remains Strong

Washington State ranks 3rd among all states in Gross Domestic Product per capita. Only New York and Massachusetts rank higher. Yes California you lag behind us and a few others as well. Generally a high GDP is not a factor for retirees unless those retirees wish to be close to grand children. Parents often find themselves chasing income opportunities and those tend to happen in areas with a robust economy. 

With Washington State producing such a large economic output, your kids may be relocating here soon. Not only does Washington have the best economy on the West Coast it has pretty good conditions for retirees with good income. No state income tax means retirees keep more of their fixed income. 

Although no one is suggesting Washington State is a sun belt state, it does have very mild weather considering its northerly latitude. The western side of the state only sees modest snowfall, very modest in most years and the opportunities for outdoor activities is hard to beat anywhere in the US.

Washington State suffers from high housing cost as does most of the West Coast. This is the single most deterring factor especially for those coming from the central states where real estate is rather affordable. If you can overcome that, its as good as any place to retire and again your grand kids might already be here.

Get ready to Vote!

Here in Washington State most ballots are out already. Washington has been a vote by mail state for over 20 years. I am not a fan, but that is how we do it here. That said look over the lists of candidates for all the positions. Not just the President and Senators and such, but the state legislators and mayors, city council. These more local officials have more say over how your daily life runs than the federal leaders do.

It is very easy to get caught up in the Presidential race since that is the highest office we vote for. But don't forget about your local people. They are equally important to us locally. This year try and read about all the candidates or at least the top tier candidates that are likely to win before you cast your vote for the "usual" person. If Americans took their vote more seriously and voted for the people that they really thought were the best people rather than just the party they associate with, we would have a much better government.

For retired people this can be very important as most retirees are a little more dependent on government services than younger people.

The Wait is Over!

The long anticipated arrival of the Springs Living on Vancouver's amazing Waterfront is now here. The building is complete, save for a few final tweaks and the Springs is actively marketing for occupancy in the next few weeks.

What is the Springs Living? Well it is a locally owned (Oregon) chain of retirement communities noted for their luxury and ability to transition with seniors as they age. The so called "age in place" model. They offer fully independent living, assisted living, and complete memory care. 

I do not want to sound like an advertisement for the business, but rather note the significance of the project they built at the Waterfront. The 12 story tower will feature just about every amenity one could wish for and the location on Vancouver's spectacular waterfront is about as good as it gets in the entire region. From a retirement standpoint Vancouver just got a big boost for those seeking an urban lifestyle with the fully enclosed age in place opportunity normal found in suburbia. According to city records the tower should have about 300 units.

If you are interested in this project they have a website here.

 

 

Updated data for Washington State

I recently updated the cities data sheet on this website to reflect changing demographics and housing costs among other notable data. That data is stored locally at this URL: City Data for Selected Washington Cities or in the column to the right of this article if you are in a browser on PC/Mac. This data was designed to show the various areas in the state and how they compared for climate, population, housing, etc.

Some interesting things have happened over the last several years in Washington State. Washington remains one of if not the strongest economies in the USA. This has led us to rising population and higher housing costs do to strong demand.

Our market like most of the country has cooled a bit, but upward price pressure continues, just not at the feverish pace of a couple years ago. The Puget Sound region has become one of the most expensive large metro area housing markets in the USA.  

One thing that I have noticed is that Washington is no longer a "value" proposition for housing even for people moving from California. It is true that California still has a significantly higher median home price than does Washington. But when looking at pricing for Californian's not living near the coast, Washington is more expensive. 

Housing is important and Washington is very expensive, but other factors play a role in choosing a place to live or retire. When you take housing out of the equation Washington is a third less expensive than California for total cost of living. When factoring in housing we are still more than 25% cheaper.

The median home price in Sacramento CA for example at the end of May this year was $462,000. That is pretty cheap actually compared to Washington's west side cities, look at the chart comparing select cities in Washington to Northern California:

Locally here in Clark County, Bay Area residents can still move here and save a lot of money on housing. But people coming from Sacramento or anywhere in the Central Valley region will find our pricing a bit high compared to their hometowns.

Washington has fallen a bit lower on the "top states to retire" lists lately and I feel like our rapid rise in housing expenses has played a large role in that. Our tax benefits and cheap energy are still huge attractants for business, families, and yes, retirees.

Is it really all wet in Washington State?

Well not really, and if you head east it gets pretty dry actually. Take a look at the following article posted last month in Rod's Real Estate News.

Washington State has a damp reputation for soggy weather. Often the local Chamber of Commerce will chime in about how we get less rain than most cities in the USA east of the Rockies. This is true and for the nation as a whole we really do not get much in the way of precipitation. Those people originating from a state west of the Rockies will find us much wetter than they are. 

But even when we compare our Western Washington cities to Northern California, we are not that much higher on rainfall than they are, particularly within 50 miles of the ocean. The real issue is that we tend to have a lot more cloudy days than most of the western US. We however are no worse off than states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York on the sunshine scale.

Anchorage, AK; Portland, OR; Buffalo, NY; Pittsburgh, PA; and Cleveland, OH round out the top five "gloomiest" cities in America in a climate survey done by Move.org. Seattle and Spokane were 6th and 7th on that list.

So cloud cover is a thing and Washington gets allot of cloudy days. But often coastal areas in California are overlooked in the "gloomy" category despite having a heavy marine layer that tends to make for foggy and cool weather in the summertime. 

But what about actual rainfall? How rainy is it really. Typically rainfall is measured two ways by climatologists. Inches or Millimeters of rain measured in a rain gauge and number of days with measurable precipitation. When measuring actual rainfall volume we are lower than the national average, but when measured by number of days with rain, we are near the top. I created two lists below ranking Washington cities against other notable locales around the country for both rainfall and days of rain.

Here are the same four charts with a list of several cities from each region of the country. Each chart ranks the cities by a different metric starting with annual days of precipitation, then annual rainfall in inches, then the percentage of sunshine, then annual snowfall.

Here we rank near the bottom with 157 days on average with measurable precipitation. It should be noted that we get a lot of days with light drizzle that is just barely enough to register in a rain gauge.

Here we are right in the middle with our paltry 36.9 inches of annual precipitation. It should be noted that in fairness, the Portland International Airport is the official NWS reporting station and it is notably drier than the surrounding area. Our real precipitation is between 40-50 inches depending on location.

Sunny days are hard to find in the winter months and it takes a toll on our annual numbers. But sunshine is in abundance from mid June through mid September. Summertime is sunny almost every day and little to no rain at all.

Snowfall is another category we do well in unless you like snow. Our 6.5 inches a year average is pretty tame even for those who hate the snow. 

When I look at the locations people are moving to I can't help but notice our weather is better than a lot of them overall. South Carolina and Tennessee are popular spots but those places have hot and sticky summers. Tennessee doesn't get quite a much snow as we do but they get three shower a day humidity in the summer. The Carolinas have those pesky hurricanes.

So in closing, yes it is as rainy as they say but not as rainy as you think.

What are the latest best states to retire in polls saying?

Washington State has been falling in the polls for best place to retire across the board. Washington has been creeping its tax burden up over the last decade so that even the advantage of no income tax is being squeezed by increases in other taxes. 

Washington has also not so quietly moved up near the very top on housing expenses which can be a large obstacle for many retirees. 

For retirees that expect to have a high income and enough money to afford a house in Washington State, it remains one of the best places. The scenery, outdoor opportunities, robust cities, and excellent health care makes Washington highly desirable. Other than sun worshippers, it is hard to beat the Evergreen State. 

It is also a state that is continuing to create good paying jobs that attract families from all over the country. This means your grand kids may end up here. 

Washington State Surprisingly Affordable?

What? Washington is the 4th most expensive state for housing in the country! How on earth can we be considered "affordable?" According to a detailed report in USA Today, Washington is the 5th most affordable state in the USA. There is a large caveat to that declaration, "Median Income." The USA Today study was based on median income. Washington has one of the highest median incomes in the USA at $91,360, in fact just $200 ANNUALLY less than California. The not so Golden State ranked 49th on the list. Why was California ranked so poorly, well because EVERYTHING in that state is more expensive.

Washington scored well because it was based on discretionary income after the basic expenses of housing, food, utilities, taxes, healthcare, and gasoline. Take a look at the report here. Our rival and neighbor Oregon ranked poorly at number 46 due largely to its much lower median income and its brutal median income tax which was ranked dead last as the highest in the land.

So the caveat is that on this site we look at retirees which most often are not making the same levels of income they made while working. If we eliminate median income as a driver, the US News & World Report study dated 2022 had Washington at number 45 slightly worse than Oregon but better than California which ranked in at 49th on that list too. Washington was ranked as the #2 best state to live in that year, behind only Utah and well ahead of Oregon at 23 and California at 33. So what it lacked in affordability it made up for in other areas.

Here is a top and bottom chart from the USA Today study.

Vancouver Health Care in Abundance

Vancouver WA offers expansive network of health care options. Retirees looking to be close to health care facilities will be pleased. Vancouver has two major hospitals: Peacehealth SW Washington Medical Center is the largest hospital in SW Washington with 450 beds and a massive campus filled with a variety of special treatment centers. Legacy Salmon Creek is located at the merger of I-5 and I-205 and offers a wide array of services. Legacy systems is negotiating with OHSU to form a new expanded health are alliance. 

Each of these two hospitals have a large "cottage industry" of medical support offices nearby. Kaiser Permanente does not have a hospital in Vancouver but does have a wide range of medical offices conveniently located around the city. There has been talk in recent years of Kaiser building a hospital in the Vancouver area to support their growing numbers in the region. 

The Vancouver Clinic is a large regional network of clinics all across the city, Clark County and now even Multnomah county offering a wide range of medical services and accepting most insurance.

The Veterans Administration operates a campus at Fort Vancouver which includes a small hospital and most VA services locally. There is a major VA hospital nearby in Portland. 

The Vancouver area offers retirees a wide variety of health care options that combined with Washington's favorable taxation for retirees makes the area highly desirable.

Is Washington Losing its Retiree Advantage?

Over the last few years Washington State has been trying to push sweeping tax changes through the legislature including an attempt at creating a capital gains tax at the local state level. That is currently being challenged in court. Washington State remains free of an income tax and that is a substantial draw to the state for retirees. 

Washington continues to be one of the most expensive real estate markets in the US and that can act as a deterrent for retirees moving here from other areas. However Washington has a very strong and growing economy and that is creating good paying jobs that tend to lure families to the state. Many retirees want to stay close to their families, particularly grand children. This continues to form an anchor for many retirees as younger people are flocking to the state in great numbers.

Washington's moderate center left politics were always a draw for both liberals and somewhat conservative people but during the last few years the state government has made a strong California-like move to the left. For some this may be a good thing and could be a draw, but for others it is a negative. 

States with moderate politics tend to be the most desirable because they welcome a variety of viewpoints and tend not to chase away people. California chases away people as does states opposite California like Mississippi. Washington has enjoyed political moderation for decades. but as I mentioned above, the state now seems to be following California. This despite the horrific problems we see happening in that state these days.

So I believe the merits of Washington State still outweigh the negatives, but trends are moving towards a less desirable stopping point for retirees. This will be a disadvantage to states that have lots of retirees such as Arizona and Florida. In those two states the voting population is older and tend to have legislatures more in tune with the needs of the senior population.

Washington State is one of the few states that is getting younger. Currently we rank 43rd of 51 (DC is included) for residents over the age of 65. A decade ago we were ranked in the middle of the pack. The current median age is 38. That compares to the "oldest" state, Maine with a median age of 45 and the "youngest" state, Utah with a median age of 31. States with the most people over age 65 are Maine with 21.8% followed by Florida with 21.3%. West of the Rockies, the leader is Hawaii with 19.6%. Wow Oregon is ahead of Arizona by a smidgen with 18.6%! 

So that's the trend and things can and do change. I am guessing that Oregon has received a great many retirees from neighboring California because Oregon is definitely not as retiree friendly as Washington State. That's another post.   

Happy Holidays!

 I'll be back in 2024!

2023 Is Coming to a Close, Washington Remains Favorable.

Washington still looks good for retirees. Low taxes for seniors and a strong economy keeps Washington State popular among young workers and seniors alike. Although the bulk of retirees still tend to choose warmer more southerly locales, Washington remains popular compared to other northern latitude states. 

I wrote an article earlier this year about grandparents moving to be close to grandkids. Washington is ideal for that scenario as robust job growth continues statewide but particularly the top five urban counties which are King County, Pierce County, Snohomish County, Clark County, and Spokane County. 

Clark County enjoys the advantage over the three Puget Sound counties as having a much more affordable housing, lower taxes, and a close proximity to Portland, OR. Although Spokane has the lowest housing prices of the five, Spokane is more isolated and lacks proximity to a major US city.

Meanwhile Washington State is ranked 13th in population among the fifty states and had the second fastest growth rate of the top 15 states by population. Only #2 Texas grew faster. Washington's robust migration ratio is bringing people by the tens of thousands every year. With both California and Oregon losing population, Washington remains the only West Coast state enjoying growth. For the young and the old, Washington is leading the charge.

SW Washington has something for everyone and that puts us in a very enviable position.

Some Bankers think Relief is Coming Next Year

originally posted in Rod's Real Estate News, 9/29/2023

According to US News and World Report the trend for the next few months is a softening in rate pressure. Rates should start to ease a bit providing some relief for weary buyers that have been priced out of mortgages over the last couple years. Locally rates have been running at nearly 8% well above the national average. The chart below shows the national trend and the rates on the chart or prior to any fees or points that banks are in fact charging. Rates that borrowers are actually seeing or will see based on this chart would be 0.5% to 1% higher. Rates also vary based on the lending program, down payment amount, credit profile and other important financial details of the borrower. The good news is they seem to think it is starting to trend favorably for borrowers.

Well let's hope they are right. I do not expect a return to the ridiculously low rates of a few years ago. That was unprecedented. The 50 year average has been around 6.5% and I find that the market responds well to rates under 6%. If we can get rates back into the mid 6s the real estate market will come around. Right now we are in a stalemate as we have neither allot of buyers nor allot of sellers. Pricing is stable but softening and transactions are way down as a result of inactivity. Sellers are holding on to the low rate they have now and buyers can't afford the high rates currently available. 

This trend if it materializes could be good for current buyers. Sellers are getting motivated and that means a negotiating edge for buyers. Buyers may find themselves able to refinance their 8% purchase not in a year or so at a more comfortable rate in the 6s.  

If that chart holds up, things should perk up a bit next spring.

Vancouver's Urban Core Still Booming

Vancouver has seen a tremendous growth boom in the city center over the last seven or eight years. The skyline has been filled with an assortment of tower cranes hovering over large mid-rise and high-rise projects for better part of a decade now.

Retirees looking for that city living opportunity can enjoy a walkable neighborhood experience in Downtown Vancouver while living in one of dozens of secure mid-rise and high-rise apartment or condominium developments. The Springs Living is the latest senior living development and it is the largest such project in the area. The 12 story tower is topped out and expected to open sometime next summer on Vancouver's Waterfront.

Below is a video showing off some of the development and condo opportunities in Vancouver's urban core.  Take a look at the amazing progress in our city center.

Inflation Making Fixed Income a Challenge

Although the rate of inflation seems to have peaked it still remains a bit high at around 3.2%. Inflation tends to eat away at fixed income spending power especially since many COLA (Cost Of Living Adjustments) are capped at 2-3%. For retirees not having an income tax in Washington State helps quite a bit, but rising gas prices due largely to a sneaky tax the state applied recently cuts into the budget quite a bit. That gas tax will likely appear on the ballot in November for voter approval. If it is rejected gas prices will drop by nearly 50 cents a gallon.

It is important for voters, particularly retired people, to pay close attention to what our state and local politicians are doing. They are often sly like the fox and when they are it usually will hit us in the wallet. Locally the economy remains fairly strong all things considered and there is a great deal of positive activity happening. For retired people that means opportunity for part time work for extra cash. Employers have been struggling to fill positions for the last few years and many seniors are making some side hustle cash to help alleviate the pains of inflation.

In other news: The Springs Living on Block 18 at the Waterfront is topped out and they seem to be on track for a summer 2024 opening. This will be the premier retirement faculty in the region with 12 floors, a private restaurant and views galore. They will offer indecent living all the way to advance memory care. This is an exciting addition to Vancouver's already spectacular Waterfront. Urban Living in the Couv follows the project, here.